Using the Update Kit and the most recent "published" ETO rules.
I foresee the Axis getting stalled very early, still, due to the Soviet advantages that still exist (or were put in for some reason). The Mech Corp trade for a 4-5-4 and 1/2 EP can really put the hurt onto parts of the advance. However, it is that in conjunction with the revised Soviet card draw of only 2 small cards on July '41 turn. Consider a most recent game, using the free set-up restrictions per ETO scenario book.
Turn 1 - Average Axis Player causes around 9-11 PPs of damage. Soviets start with Great Patriotic War and Enduring Deprevations in hand and spend 13 PPs on Turn 1 . Soviets flip some key positioned Mech units into 4-5-4s plus get EPs back. Soviet has +4 PPs overall (13 - 9 = 4) so far. Also get to increase their PPs due to Soviet Production Phase, well over 100PPs
Turn 2 - Soviets play Enduring Deprivations in Axis supply step ... all those isolated Soviets remain. Axis face stiffened line due to more 8-4s and 4-5-4s, so Axis cause on average 5-8 PPs. (Soviets select GPW (again since it is a Set Aside from last turn) and Militia Mobilized and play BOTH to flood the front). Twelve (12) Corps are placed, plus 14PPs to spend. More Corps and flipping all those 4-5-4s to 8-4s. So Soviets get 26 more PPs. Advantage now Soviets + 25PP (26-5+4=25PP) and it is only turn 2. Soviets played 3 cards on turn 2 alone.
Turn 3 - If the Axis have managed to move their front past Minsk, then only the armor is supplied due to the 12 hex HQ range (as it is still to early to jump the HQ forward) and are facing OOS Axis infantry and supplied Armor. GPW in two turns has allowed 3 Yaks onto the mats due to the replacement allowed per the card. *IF* axis can manage 8 PPs, Soviets respond back with 14 more PPs. Soviet advantage now +36PPs by turn 3. (However, if not this turn, by the next turn, Axis will be limited to no more than 3-5 PPs damage, as all units are 4-5-4s and 8-4s... and prospects for breakthroughs are slim.
You may quibble with the amount of PPs an Axis player may cause in these or subsequent turns, but I think most will be hard pressed to overcome the numbers with a competent Soviet player. Add to that the Enduring Deprivations which left a solid Soviet Force with no chance of reduction (as opposed to 50%) to your rear behind your thrusting armor, you can imagine the wreck to any time table.
Proposal to correct this imbalance - it comes down to the cards and what is available. The "at Start" for the Soviets should either be no cards (so they can't select GPW) or allowed only Scorched Earth. Axis success hinges upon a strict timetable, and allowing the Soviets a free turn when all there Isolated units remain is just nasty. Additionally, Soviets should be allowed to pick 2 Small Cards on their Turn 2. It should be only 1 card. Getting 36 PPs in two turns will stop any offensive.
Just some thoughts.