For the solo game I'm playing with the Germans activating Ukraine (see other post for my thoughts on Ukraine activation), I'm going to post an end of season accounting. Here's the Autumn start game condition. Overall, I'm pretty happy with the balance. It seems daunting for the Germans in July when there are so many Soviet units, but the Soviets get worn down by the end of Summer.
The Germans have been conservative and less aggressive than I normally would be to try to minimize losses to their armor. It shows in the board position as they are lagging the historic German progress. They still haven't taken Dnepropetrovsk or Smolensk (but the later will likely fall in Oct I). They made a concerted effort to take Leningrad in September, but the door was slammed on them with a heavy Soviet commitment to its defense. The Germans have been blessed with Fair weather for the upcoming October I turn (11 on the weather roll and no Rasputitsa).
Axis unreplaced losses sit at:
-7 regular steps, -1 special step
-1 special Romanian steps, -2 regular Romanian steps (demobilized for happy home front; the Romanians demobilized their fighter and merchant ships units as well), but Romania has 7 PP after season start to rebuild.
Ukrainians add 2x 6-4-5 armor corps, a 3-1-6 armor division, and 3 infantry steps.
This is pretty close to the Typhoon setup with infantry just right and better with the Axis minors and armored forces.