I wanted to get a sanity check on a game in progress. We've been speculating on the future direction this game and wanted to hear perspectives from others playing the ETO rules on the current board position. The question is: Which side has the advantage? How would you project the short-term (1941) outcome given the current position and disposition of forces?
Turn: just finished the German half of the July III turn.
Germans have 10PP, 13 EP, 13 FP, have 4 Armor steps destroyed (one remnant in a city ready for free stuff) and 1 Inf step eliminated, but otherwise have a full complement of units. Two HQs are moved forward (AGC, AGN), but still on 2 and 3 cooldowns respectively. The Germans still have their July card(s) unplayed.
Soviets sit at 115 1/2 MP, 82 PP, 32 1/2 EP, and 42 FP. They have 80 Infantry front-line steps (excludes isolated units), 12 Mech corps (mostly big ones as the 1's and 2's have been eliminated), and 7 divisions still on the board (2 Mtn, 4 Abn, 1 Cav). And remember, they have their builds upcoming for the July III turn. The Soviets have an empty hand (all cards played). For context, Typhoon scenario start (which is 9 turns in time away) has the Soviets at 75 MP, 74 PP, 35 EP, 44FP, 85 Inf steps, and 6 divisions.
After initial Blitzkrieg, the Soviets have been losing 5-8 steps per turn, so have had a net increase of 2-4 steps per turn. But they obviously haven't faced the first round of HQ refreshes yet.
Here's board positions: